Official statusNo official watch/warning

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance

No official watch or warning is in effect in the current NHC data.

Tropical Storm Vance has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving NW at 8 mph.

Tropical Storm Vance is currently being tracked. The current NHC outlook is not monitoring any other areas for possible development.

NHC outlook updated: Oct 27, 11:00 AM GMT-7

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Regional Storm Tracker

Trop. Depr.Tropical StormHurricaneMajor Hurr.Post Tropical

Map sources: NHC 7-Day OutlookNHC storm track and coneNOAA GFS wind and pressureNOAA/NESDIS satellite imagery. Visualization by BajaStorms.

No official watch/warning

Tropical Storm Vance

40mphWeakening

Max sustained winds

Movement: NW 8 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb

Storm center distance to BCS

Current: 477 mi
Closest observed: 10/27/26 · 477 mi
Closest forecast: 10/29/26 · 85 mi

Storm center distance to mainland Mexico

Current: 275 mi
Closest observed: 10/25/26 · 235 mi
Closest forecast: 10/29/26 · 11 mi

Track distance between reported center positions is estimated. Center distance does not show how far winds and rain can reach.

Vance advisory: Oct 27, 8:00 AM GMT-7

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Vance is currently a tropical storm. Understand storm classifications.

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What changed since the last update

Situation improving

Vance weakened from 45 mph to 40 mph.

Official Cone & Model Guidance

Official NHC forecast cone and track for Vance; issue time shown in image — NHC Forecast ConeNHC Forecast Cone—

Interactive GuidanceInteractive Model Guidance TracksOct 27, 5:00 AM GMT-7

Tap a button to compare possible storm paths.Click a track or its button to highlight it and compare the forecasts.Models offer different views of the storm’s future path.Selected global and hurricane models, plus combined forecasts, show possible storm paths.

Up to 5 days ahead.Forecasts up to 5 days ahead.NOAA/NHC ATCF A-deck ↗

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Baja California Sur

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Cabo San Lucas

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Storms being monitored

86°Light drizzle89° · 75°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 478 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 8:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

San José del Cabo

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83°Mainly clear85° · 75°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 485 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 8:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Todos Santos

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87°Clear sky88° · 74°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 520 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 8:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

La Paz

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86°Clear sky89° · 73°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 568 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 8:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

East CapeLos Barriles

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Storms being monitored

86°Clear sky88° · 76°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 526 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 8:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Loreto

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85°Clear sky86° · 71°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 711 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 8:00 AM GMT-7). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Mainland Mexico

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Now covering 12 cities in mainland Mexico’s coastal region.

Salina Cruz

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95°Partly cloudy96° · 76°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 830 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 9:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Puerto Escondido

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88°Mainly clear88° · 70°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 706 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 9:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Acapulco

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Storms being monitored

87°Clear sky87° · 76°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 518 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 9:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Zihuatanejo

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Storms being monitored

86°Partly cloudy86° · 77°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 417 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 9:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Lázaro Cárdenas

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Storms being monitored

86°Overcast87° · 76°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 381 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 9:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

Manzanillo

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Storms being monitored

83°Overcast85° · 76°

Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance.

Nearest NHC/CPHC storm center: Vance, about 295 mi from here (position at Oct 27, 9:00 AM CST). Center distance does not describe local hazards.

BajaStorms is monitoring official advisories for this area. Always verify NHC, SMN, and Protección Civil guidance.

BajaStorms organizes official storm, watch, and warning information. It does not issue independent weather warnings.

Weather by Open-Meteo and MET Norway

Satellite & Storm Maps

NOAA GOES-19 · GeoColor - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Latest satelliteSource ↗

Latest satellite: Shows cloud structure across Baja and the Eastern Pacific. Use the loop to watch systems organize, weaken, or move closer to the region.

NOAA GOES-19 · Infrared - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — InfraredSource ↗

Infrared: Highlights the coldest cloud tops, which mark the strongest thunderstorms. Use the loop to see where storms build or weaken over recent hours.

NOAA GOES-19 · Full Pacific GeoColor - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Full Pacific GeoColorSource ↗

Full Pacific GeoColor: Covers the wider eastern Pacific so distant tropical systems remain visible before they enter the tighter Baja sector.

NOAA GOES-19 · Full Pacific storm tops - Baja California / Eastern Pacific — Full Pacific storm topsSource ↗

Full Pacific storm tops: Combines visible and infrared detail across the full Pacific sector, making deep convection easier to spot far west of Baja.

Tropical Weather Outlook and Discussion

7-Day Tropical OutlookSource ↗

7-day outlook graphic unavailable - open the official NHC outlook.

NOAA NHCUpdates every 6 hours

2-Day Tropical OutlookSource ↗

2-day tropical outlook satellite image unavailable - open the official NHC outlook.

NOAA NHCUpdates every 6 hours

Tropical Weather Outlook Source ↗

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Vance, located a couple hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

NOAA NHCIssued 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Discussion Source ↗

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.9N 106.9W at 27/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft or 5.5 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited to the E side of the system. Numerous moderate to strong is noted between 75 nm and 210 nm in the E through SE quadrants. Vance is moving toward the northwest. A northwestward motion is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn northward on Wed. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango, and coastal sections of Nayarit and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern, southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over the region along with nocturnal drainage flow is resulting in N-NE minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with rough seas. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by mid-morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea at 12N75W to along the border of Colombia and Panama to 07N81W to 08N86W to well SE of Tropical Storm Vance at 08N08W. It resumes well SSW of Vance from 09N109W to 06N120W to 1011 mb low pressure at 07N133W to 04N140W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 01N between 77W and 84W, and from 01N to 07N between 84W and 114W. Similar convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja California Norte from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are moderate away from those Special Features areas, except slight in the northern and central Gulf of California, higher in the SE Gulf due to swells associated with Vance. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Vance will move to 17.0N 107.8W this afternoon, 18.6N 108.4W Wed morning, 20.2N 108.6W Wed afternoon, 21.7N 108.5W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 23.9N 107.9W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning.. Gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh to near gale force mid-morning, pulsing at those speeds through Thu night, then pulsing at moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California Norte will diminish Wed. Looking ahead, a developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California Peninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail otherwise. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are in and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate seas dominate the offshore waters, except slight nearshore Colombia. Active convection is present from offshore southern Costa Rica southeastward to Ecuador, with the potential for locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh NE winds in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week, locally strong at times through mid-week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Looking ahead, seas may build to a rough state in SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance. High pressure covers the area generally north of about 18N. A frontal system remains mainly WNW of the area, with an associated cold front touching 30N140W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and rough seas are just ahead of the front in the far NW waters just SE of 30N140W. Meanwhile, 1010 mb low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 07N133W with a surface trough analyzed off to the NE. The pressure gradient between these features and the high supports moderate to fresh trades from roughly 13N to 21N between 115W and 135W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters, except locally fresh S of 03N between 95W and 115W. Moderate seas prevail away from Vance and the NW corner, except to rough S of 03N between 95W and 125W in incoming SW swell mixing with NE swells generated from Tropical Storm Vance. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 17.0N 107.8W this afternoon, 18.6N 108.4W Wed morning, 20.2N 108.6W Wed afternoon, 21.7N 108.5W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near 23.9N 107.9W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the NW part of the area will diminish to mostly fresh speeds by early on Wed as the warm front pulls away from the region. Incoming SW swell will continue to spread into a portion of the S-central waters through late Wed, building seas to the range of 7-10 ft S of about 04N and between 105W and 128W by late Wed night, while mixing with old NE swells generated by Vance. These seas are expected to linger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding by the start of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist through at least mid- week. Looking ahead, a developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and building seas as the system shifts eastward.

NOAA NHCIssued 1005 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion

The National Hurricane Center's full technical discussion of conditions across the eastern Pacific - tropical waves, convection, and any systems being watched. Issued several times daily.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

Gulf of California SSTSource ↗

Sea temperature image unavailable. Open the official source.

NOAA / NESDIS OSPODate shown on chart

Warm water is the fuel for tropical storms. Hurricanes generally need sea-surface temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (80 °F) to form and strengthen., so warmer water along Mexico’s Pacific coast is worth watching.

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Monitoring Tropical Storm Vance